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In trying to forge a multilateral solution to climate change the US clearly stands out as the major stumbling block. Accounting for a quarter of the world’s emissions and until very recently the world’s largest polluter, it is clear that the US has to be a part of the global solution. Even though China now occupies the top emitters position, the fact that America comes in just below it with only a fifth of its population means that major efforts will have to be employed to put it on a low carbon development path. During my recent travels through America though, it became clear that the domestic politics of that country will simply not allow it to undertake this major transition.

In America all politics is local. This means that their national agenda is determined by the balance of forces between the different congressmen and senators from the 50 states. A Democrat from a coal intensive state will vote against any regulation that works against the economic interests of their constituency. This was visibly demonstrated in a campaign advertisement where a Democrat running in West Virginia literally fired a shot into the proposed Cap and Trade legislation. Given the fact that almost all Republicans, with the exception of one or two like Senator Lindsey Graham, will not endorse any Federal government measures to combat climate change, it seems the prospects for the US as a whole agreeing to any globally agreed emission reduction targets is close to impossible.

The one glimmer of hope though is the actions that some States are taking on their own accord. In California, which is the world’s seventh largest economy on its own, the previous Governor Schwarzenegger enacted a 2004 climate change bill that seeks to bring that State’s emissions back down to 1990 levels by 2020. This is still far below what science requires but it is hoped that in doing this it can demonstrate the economic benefits of building a clean technology industry. This might inspire other States to follow suit and shift the national political debate over climate change. In the November elections, two Texas oil companies tried to block this legislation by putting the bill to a public referendum. Thankfully Californians rejected this move and also elected a Democratic Governor who is committed to building a clean technology industry. California and the handful of other States that are pursuing such a path might represent the only hope that the world has in getting America to finally come on board tackling this global challenge. It is not much I know, but when it comes to climate change you have to find any spark of optimism you can, especially in America.

Lance Greyling